Why We Stay Too Long

The seeds of doubt were watered by my tears on the night it all fell apart. At last, from the white flower that bloomed out of it, I saw a face: a girl who trained in martial arts, her expression strained. She didn't want to keep forcing herself to show up, over and over again.

Believe me, I've never been someone who gives up easily — sheer stubbornness runs through every artery I have. "You tell me I can't do it? I'll do it just to prove you wrong." Add to that the demand that every student in this circle "tough it out", and I held the line on myself for three whole years. I'm still rather proud of that.

Until one day I realised I might have fallen into the sunk cost fallacy — and that learning to accept and let go could be the way out, the thing that stops you sinking deeper into regret.

Have you ever heard of The Sunk Cost Fallacy?

Sunk cost was originally a concept used in economics and business, meaning "a cost that has already been paid and cannot be recovered".

I first came across the idea in a book called The Art of Thinking Clearly , and the principle tells us we shouldn't stay attached to the past. The example the book uses is this: imagine you're watching a film that turns out to be terrible, and, thoroughly fed up, you decide to walk out halfway through — only for your wife to reply, "But we spent 30 euros on those tickets, leaving now would be such a waste." And so, by staying to watch the film with her, you lose both your money and your time.

Spotting the sunk cost fallacy is fairly easy, too — just listen out for the magic words: "I can't bear to." "What a pity." "Shouldn't we just quit?" In Hong Kong, where wage earners trade time for money, "time = money" still holds true much of the time.

"I've studied this for two years already, what a waste to switch fields now."

"You've been learning the violin all this time, it'd be such a pity to stop, but you can't bear it."

"You two have been together for seven whole years, why on earth would you break up now?!" (Fair enough — love is the classic example.)

The examples I've heard reach onto an even broader plane — take the film The Pentagon Papers, which touches on why the United States kept fighting through the Vietnam War: even though defeat was already certain, because so many young lives had already been sacrificed, the country chose to keep sending in troops, for the sake of national pride.

Some people are more prone to the sunk cost fallacy than others. MBA literature suggests the following reasons:

• 1. Initial investment — that is, how much time and money the person poured in at the outset. The higher the initial investment, the harder it is to extract oneself from a course of action.
• 2. Situational factors — that is, the decision-maker feels a sense of responsibility when their plan or behaviour falls short of the ideal. If the decision-maker believes they have to shoulder more of the blame, the chance of incurring sunk cost rises too. But this association is still debated among psychologists.
• 3. Mental Accounting — which also serves, before an event spirals out of control / before the person is in too deep, as a safeguard mechanism that lets them pull out in time.

So, how should we avoid the sunk cost fallacy?

As just mentioned, Mental Accounting is a form of self-control — in other words, a "Plan B". Take ambitious young people who hope to start a business: facing limited time and capital, they must set themselves a deadline and a financial budget. For example, how many clients to out-reach within a year, and how much profit to earn each month. If they haven't achieved the expected results within the deadline and budget, it's time to consider changing strategy or pulling out. Whether it's a personal venture, the pursuit of a hobby, or a relationship, setting yourself a time limit and a Plan B for your course of action also looks like a wise move.

Finally, to quote the book's author, Rolf Dobelli (2013):

There may be many good reasons to keep investing in something in order to see it through, but never do it for this one reason: that you've already sunk so much time into it.

When people face a choice, their stance shifts as their experience and knowledge grow. Sometimes, "today's me contradicting yesterday's me" is nothing to be ashamed of, because it means you're pulling yourself out of the swamp of sunk cost, back onto dry land, and choosing afresh how to move forward into another unknown.

Set yourself a deadline, and if your efforts haven't paid off within that limit, then part ways decisively with the thing — or the person. Be kind to your own time.

Dobelli, R. (2013) The Art of Thinking Clearly. Harper.